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DTN Midday Grain Comments     06/24 11:45

   All Grains Higher at Midday

   Trade is firmer across the board at midday; the market is looking toward the 
big USDA Planting and Stocks reports this Friday.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are firmer with the Dow 50 higher. The dollar 
index is 17 weaker. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are softer with 
crude $0.50 lower. Livestock trade is mostly lower. Precious metals are mixed 
with gold $18.40 higher.


   Corn trade is 3 to 4 cents higher at midday with trade chopping along range 
bound with positioning for active week of reports. The forecast looks to trend 
towards warmer and drier into July after extensive rains in many areas this 
weekend. Ethanol margins remain tight with blender margins getting a boost from 
the surge in crude values with the Iran tensions with flat ethanol futures this 
morning. The trade continues to debate acreage losses and the yield effects of 
the late wet planting conditions that will keep uncertainty in this market for 
the growing season with the weekly crop progress report giving another data 
point today, with steady conditions expected, emergence well behind normal, and 
planting effectively complete. The weekly export inspections continue to 
soften; they were at 617,740 metric tons. Corn basis remains on a firmer trend, 
especially for the Eastern Belt. On the July nearby chart support is the 10-day 
at $4.43 5/8, with the 20-day at $4.33 below there. Resistance is the upper 
Bollinger Band at $4.59. 


   Soybean trade is 5 to 7 cents higher at midday with trade still lingering 
near the upper end of the range as planting time winds down. Meal is 2.50 to 
3.50 higher and oil is flat to 10 points lower. Crush margins remain solidly 
positive overall with meal trying to regain the lead to start the week. World 
export demand remains slow, and the South American currencies cheap but firming 
again with the real trying to consolidate over 26. Field work will likely be 
slowed again in many areas with more insurance days passing for soybeans before 
potential more open weather at the end of the month with trade trying to hold 
on to acres with November near the contract highs and more liberal forage cover 
crop requirements coming into play. The weekly export inspections were in line 
with recent weeks at 682,155 metric tons. The weekly crop progress is expected 
to push planting close to 90% with first conditions around 57-60% good to 
excellent, and emergence well behind normal. The July chart resistance is the 
200-day at $9.07 which we are testing at midday, then the recent high at $9.21, 
with support the 100-day at $8.94.


   Wheat trade is 2 to 10 cents higher at midday with light buying as harvest 
delays will linger to start the week for winter wheat. The Kansas City/Chicago 
spread is flat this a.m. The heavy rains from this weekend will keep harvest 
slow with a warmer week likely to get combines rolling in a bigger way towards 
the weekend. The dollar is below 96 on the index with the post Fed slide 
continuing. Black Sea-area weather remains mixed with world values soft. Hard 
red wheat is working into feed rations in some areas with the bounce in corn 
values, and reduced quality may increase feeding on that front. The weekly 
export inspections were in line with recent weeks at 406,386 metric tons. The 
weekly crop progress report is expected to show steady conditions with harvest 
moving towards 20% complete, well off the average pace, and spring wheat 
conditions steady to slightly lower. On the July Kansas City chart, support is 
the 100-day at $4.49 with resistance again the 20-day at 4.59 which we are 
testing at midday. 


   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser
He can be reached at 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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